DTN Midday Livestock Comments          07/17 11:53

   Cattle Soft While Hogs Inch Higher

   Some light trade has developed now in both regions, but not enough volume 
has traded to say that any sort of a trend can be noted.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle complex is trading 
mostly lower, but the lean hog contracts are trading higher. There's been some 
light sales noted in the fed cash cattle market, but not enough volume has 
traded yet to say that any sort of trend can be noted. September corn is down 1 
1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is up 131.53 points and NASDAQ is up 161.77 points.

   Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,800 mt for 2025 
were down 24% from the previous week and 28% from the prior four-week average. 
The three largest buyers were Japan (2,500 mt), Mexico (1,900 mt) and Hong Kong 
(1,400 mt). Pork net sales of 17,100 mt for 2025 were down 30% from the 
previous week and 48% from the prior four-week average. The three largest 
buyers were Mexico (7,700 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and Colombia (1,500 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   Following Wednesday's higher close, traders are now waving their white flag, 
seeming to scream, "we need more fundamental reassurance before we can advance 
the market any higher," from the rooftops around the world. August live cattle 
are down $0.45 at $223.42, October live cattle are down $0.72 at $220.02 and 
December live cattle are down $0.72 at $220.30. It comes as no surprise that 
boxed beef prices are trading lower as the seasonal regression is well underway 
for the third quarter. However, traders are sitting on pins and needles 
awaiting to see what develops in this week's fed cash cattle market. Bids were 
offered throughout the day on Wednesday, but no cattle traded and as the market 
nears Thursday's noon hour, only a small handful of sales have been noted 
today. Some light business has been noted in the North from a Nebraska Regional 
packer at $380, but those cattle are set for delivery for the week of Aug. 4. A 
few deals have also been reported in Kansas for $231, but the week's volume is 
still too thin to say that any sort of a trend has been established.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.48 ($372.37) and select down 
$2.00 ($355.91) with a movement of 78 loads (36.01 loads of choice, 21.16 loads 
of select, 12.87 loads of trim and 7.97 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   And seeming to follow suit again, the feeder cattle complex is following in 
the live cattle market's wake, unwilling to move opposite of the live cattle 
complex right now. August feeders are down $0.42 at $325.15, September feeders 
are down $0.42 at $325.42 and October feeders are down $0.35 at $323.62. What 
is interesting to note is that even while the nearby contracts are trading 
lower, the deferred feeder cattle contracts are continuing to inch higher as 
traders are acknowledging the fact that there isn't going to be an 
overabundance of supply anytime in the near future.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is continuing to trade higher as the market is pleased 
to see pork cutout values stronger and has established somewhat of a bottom in 
the futures complex for this move. It is surprising to note that while compared 
to a week ago pork exports were down 30%, the market isn't seeming unscathed by 
that announcement. However, last week, the lower note of exports gravely 
impacted the market. August lean hogs are up $0.77 at $105.20, October lean 
hogs are up $1.57 at $90.27 and December lean hogs are up $1.50 at $81.95.

   The projected lean hog index for 7/16/2025 is up $0.43 at $107.63, and the 
actual index for 7/15/2025 is up $0.01 at $107.20. Hog prices are lower on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.21 with a weighted average price of 
$109.60, ranging from $101.50 to $113.00 on 1,025 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $110.31. Pork cutouts total 183.37 loads with 164.71 loads of pork 
cuts and 18.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.26, $115.00.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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