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Israel's Strikes Shifting Power/Balance10/08 06:15
Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran's armed allies across a nearly
2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts
raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the
region, to which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq inadvertently gave rise.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran's armed
allies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening
Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of
Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq
inadvertently gave rise.
In Washington, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and Arab capitals, opponents and
supporters of Israel's offensive are offering clashing ideas about what the
U.S. should do next, as its ally racks up tactical successes against Hezbollah
in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and presses its yearlong campaign to crush
Hamas in Gaza.
Israel should get all the support it needs from the United States until
Iran's government "follows other dictatorships of the past into the dustbin of
history," said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at Washington's
conservative-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies -- calls echoed
by some Israeli political figures.
Going further, Yoel Guzansky, a former senior staffer at Israel's National
Security Council, called for the Biden administration to join Israel in direct
attacks in Iran. That would send "the right message to the Iranians -- 'Don't
mess with us,''' Guzansky said.
Critics, however, highlight lessons from the U.S. military campaign in Iraq
and toppling of Saddam Hussein, when President George W. Bush ignored Arab
warnings that the Iraqi dictator was the region's indispensable counterbalance
to Iranian influence. They caution against racking up military victories
without adequately considering the risks, end goals or plans for what comes
next, and warn of unintended consequences.
Ultimately, Israel "will be in a situation where it can only protect itself
by perpetual war," said Vali Nasr, who was an adviser to the Obama
administration. Now a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced
International Studies, or SAIS, he has been one of the leading documenters of
the rise of Iranian regional influence since the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving limited weight to
Biden administration calls for restraint, the United States and its partners in
the Middle East are "at the mercy of how far Bibi Netanyahu will push it," Nasr
said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname.
"It's as if we hadn't learned the lessons, or the folly, of that experiment
... in Iraq in 2003 about reshaping the Middle East order," said Randa Slim, a
fellow at SAIS and researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
Advocates of Israel's campaign hope for the weakening of Iran and its armed
proxies that attack the U.S., Israel and their partners, oppress civil society
and increasingly are teaming up with Russia and other Western adversaries.
Opponents warn that military action without resolving the grievances of
Palestinians and others risks endless and destabilizing cycles of war,
insurgency and extremist violence, and Middle East governments growing more
repressive to try to control the situation.
And there's the threat that Iran develops nuclear weapons to try to ensure
its survival. Before the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iranian leaders
concerned about Israel's offensives had made clear that they were interested in
returning to negotiations with the U.S. on their nuclear program and claimed
interest in improved relations overall.
In just weeks, Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations have
devastated the leadership, ranks and arsenals of Lebanon-based Hezbollah --
which had been one of the Middle East's most powerful fighting forces and
Iran's overseas bulwark against attacks on Iranian territory -- and hit oil
infrastructure of Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis.
A year of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza appears to have reduced the leadership
of Iranian-allied Hamas to a few survivors hiding in underground tunnels.
However, Israeli forces again engaged in heavy fighting there this week, and
Hamas was able to fire rockets at Tel Aviv in a surprising show of enduring
strength on the Oct. 7 anniversary of the militant group's attack on Israel,
which started the war.
Anticipated Israeli counterstrikes on Iran could accelerate regional shifts
in power. The response would follow Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israel
last week in retaliation for killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
It also could escalate the risk of all-out regional war that U.S. President
Joe Biden -- and decades of previous administrations -- worked to avert.
The expansion of Israeli attacks since late last month has sidelined
mediation by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar for a cease-fire and hostage release
deal in Gaza. U.S. leaders say Israel did not warn them before striking
Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon but have defended the surge in attacks, while
still pressing for peace.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, said in
an interview with CBS' "60 Minutes" aired Monday that the U.S. was dedicated to
supplying Israel with the military aid needed to protect itself but would keep
pushing to end the conflict.
"We're not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in
the region, including Arab leaders," she said.
Israel's expanded strikes raise for many what is the tempting prospect of
weakening Iran's anti-Western, anti-Israel alliance with like-minded armed
groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen to governments in Russia and North
Korea.
Called the "Axis of Resistance," Iran's military alliances grew --
regionally, then globally -- after the U.S. invasion of Iraq removed Saddam,
who had fought an eight-year war against Iran's ambitious clerical regime.
Advocates of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and overthrow of Saddam, said
correctly that an Iraqi democracy would take hold.
But the unintended effects of the U.S. intervention were even bigger,
including the rise of Iran's Axis of Resistance and new extremist groups,
including the Islamic State.
"An emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor" of the
2003 Iraq war, notes a U.S. Army review of lessons learned.
"Two decades ago, who could have seen a day when Iran was supporting Russia
with arms? The reason is because of its increased influence" after the U.S.
overthrow of Saddam, said Ihsan Alshimary, professor of political science at
Baghdad University.
Even more than in 2003, global leaders are offering little clear idea on how
the shifts in power that Israel's military is putting in motion will end -- for
Iran, Israel, the Middle East at large, and the United States.
Iran and its allies are being weakened, said Goldberg, at the Foundation for
the Defense of Democracies. So is U.S. influence as it appears to be dragged
along by Israel, Nasr said.
The conflict could end up hurting Israel if it bogs down in a ground war in
Lebanon, for example, said Mehran Kamrava, a professor and Middle East expert
at Georgetown University in Qatar.
After four decades of deep animosity between Israeli and Iranian leaders,
"the cold war between them has turned into a hot war. And this is significantly
changing -- is bound to change -- the strategic landscape in the Middle East,"
he said.
"We are certainly at the precipice of change," Kamrava said. But "the
direction and nature of that change is very hard to predict at this stage."
___
AP reporters Julia Frankel in Jerusalem and Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad
contributed.
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