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Trump's Iran Tough-Talk Hitting a Wall 05/19 06:09
President Donald Trump has considered himself an effective dealmaker above
all else, but he appears to have hit a wall with Iran as his tough talk,
threats and even military action have not moved Tehran from its
long-established positions.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Donald Trump has considered himself an
effective dealmaker above all else, but he appears to have hit a wall with Iran
as his tough talk, threats and even military action have not moved Tehran from
its long-established positions.
With shifting goals that make it difficult to judge the status of the U.S.
effort, Trump and his top aides have insisted the United States has already won
the war and that Iran is ready to reach an agreement in the wake of escalating
U.S. threats during a tenuous ceasefire.
But Trump once again backed down, saying Monday that he had put plans for an
imminent resumption of attacks on hold at the request of Gulf Arab states
because "serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion,
as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable
to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East,
and beyond."
Although he said he had called off strikes planned for Tuesday, Trump kept
up the bravado, saying he told military leaders "to be prepared to go forward
with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment's notice, in the event
that an acceptable Deal is not reached." Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for
Tehran and then backed off.
Despite growing internal unrest, a crippled economy and the deaths of many
of its leaders, there is no evidence Iran is set to meet Trump's demands --
many of which it has long rejected. In fact, it has dug in. That has left
Trump's stated top objectives unrealized: Iran has yet to agree to abandon its
nuclear program or its ballistic missile development, or cease support for its
proxies in the region, including those in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
The White House on Monday defended the president's approach, saying,
"Trump's preference is always peace and diplomacy" but he will only accept a
deal that puts America first. "President Trump holds all the cards and wisely
keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear
weapon," spokesperson Olivia Wales said in a statement to The Associated Press.
Iran has leverage with the Strait of Hormuz
Crucially, Iran still has a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, the vital
shipping lane for global oil supplies, even as the U.S. military has enforced
its own blockade on Iranian ports. The wild shifts in the global energy market
that followed have raised gasoline prices, hurting U.S. consumers and causing
potential problems for Trump's Republican Party ahead of congressional midterm
elections in November.
Trump's playbook of turning up the pressure -- economically and militarily
-- to bend foreign governments to his will is not playing out in Iran as it has
in Venezuela, Cuba and elsewhere. Oil blockades have squeezed those two
countries and the Trump administration quickly ousted Venezuelan leader Nicols
Maduro, but they do not hold a bargaining chip as effective as Iran's control
over the Strait of Hormuz.
With the Iran war driving up costs for Americans, Trump's approval rating on
the economy has slumped, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted last month,
with even Republicans showing less faith in his leadership.
For all of Trump's rhetoric, Iran has been unwilling to accept limitations
on any of its policies that amount to more than what it conceded during the
negotiations for a nuclear deal with world powers during the Obama
administration. Trump called it the "worst ever" agreement negotiated by the
U.S. and pulled out of it in his first term in 2018.
Since a fragile truce in the war went into effect last month, Trump has
lashed out over the slow pace of negotiations to reach a permanent deal.
"For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there
won't be anything left of them," Trump posted on social media Sunday shortly
after a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Iranian response was quick. "Our armed forces' fingers are on the
trigger, while diplomacy is also continuing," Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser
to Iran's supreme leader, said on state television.
Neither side sees defeat, expert says
Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group who has watched
years of fruitless diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, said the longtime
adversaries do not see themselves as being defeated by the latest conflict.
"Since the ceasefire took effect, both Washington and Tehran seem to be
working on the assumption that time acts in their favor: Each believes that the
blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz raises the costs for the
other side, while giving a reprieve to prepare for a potential resumption of
hostilities," Vaez said.
Despite the impact of America's economic pressure campaign, Iranian
officials have not reached the pain threshold "to the point of accepting what
it perceives as capitulatory demands," he said.
David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for the Middle East in
Trump's first administration who is currently at The Washington Institute for
Near East Policy, described the current situation as "a stalemate."
He said Trump likely has "misgivings" about returning to full-on military
conflict, especially because of Gulf Arab anxieties about Iranian retaliation
and the volatility in the energy markets, with its political implications in
the U.S.
Rich Goldberg, an Iran hawk and former National Security Council official in
both of Trump's administrations who is now with the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies think tank, insisted that Trump is still operating from a position
of strength, including with the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldberg, who has a special interest in American energy dominance, said that
while reopening the strait would ease the "pain at the pump" felt by many
Americans, it was not critical.
"The short-term pain at the pump is distracting people from U.S. overall
energy dominance," he said. "This is not a permanent crisis."
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