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Trump Weighs His Next Move in Iran War 11/06 06:25
As he takes stock of his Republican Party's midterm drubbing, President
Donald Trump now faces the difficult question of what to do about his unpopular
8-month-old war against Iran.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- As he takes stock of his Republican Party's midterm
drubbing, President Donald Trump now faces the difficult question of what to do
about his unpopular 8-month-old war against Iran.
For weeks, Trump has threatened to return to a full-scale bombardment of
Iran once the U.S. elections were in the rearview mirror if Tehran did not come
to a settlement under terms acceptable to him.
In his first comments on Wednesday after Democrats' resounding election
victory -- a wave powered in part by the American electorate's dissatisfaction
with the war -- Trump largely agreed with Vice President JD Vance, who publicly
ruminated on the war being a catastrophe for Republicans.
And in an Oval Office exchange with reporters Thursday, Trump suggested that
the election losses aren't weighing on his calculations.
"If we have to do the rest of the Iran thing, we're very much locked in,"
Trump said.
The strikes, and counterstrikes, have caused tens of billions of dollars of
damage in the region. And the conflict has reached into the pocketbook of
families around the globe with elevated gas prices and rising costs in just
about every sector.
Now, as Trump ponders his next move, the stakes couldn't be higher for Iran,
the Middle East and the global economy writ large.
Trump may be less restrained, but the conflict is now more complicated
While oil is flowing again from the Strait of Hormuz with the help of U.S.
Navy escorts for international tankers, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea
with Iran-backed Houthi rebels and a Saudi Arabia -led coalition fighting it
out.
The situation in the Red Sea remains particularly volatile. The Houthis are
attacking Yemeni civilians and Saudi infrastructure, and are looking to bolster
ties with militant groups across the Horn of Africa.
The attacks by the Yemen-based Houthis on areas controlled by the
internationally recognized Yemeni government have also worsened a growing
humanitarian crisis.
The threat that the region faces from Iran and its proxy groups, noted a
senior Yemeni government official, "did not change overnight" with the U.S.
elections, urging Washington to avoid hasty decisions. The official was not
authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the basis of anonymity.
"There's reason to suspect that Trump may feel less restrained given that
the political damage is done," said Brian Haggerty, a former senior analyst at
the Central Intelligence Agency who focused on Middle East security issues. "At
the same time, the strategic calculus or the strategic logic of what you hope
to achieve through an escalation of strikes against Iran is no different today
than it was a week ago or a month ago."
Trump has at least a few options, analysts say
Haggerty, who now works with Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank,
said Trump could choose to maintain something close to the current posture,
with the U.S. military carrying out what it calls "defensive strikes" while
continuing its naval blockade to restrict the flow of Iranian oil to the global
market.
Another option is striking Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, a facility linked to its
nuclear program that is buried deep underground in central Iran, said David
Schenker, who served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs
in Trump's first term. Trump has repeatedly suggested he was considering
targeting the site.
Schenker said Trump could then walk away and contend he had done sufficient
damage to Iran's nuclear program -- and perhaps try to pursue a "fig leaf
agreement" that restores freedom of navigation to the Strait of Hormuz, offers
Iran some degree of sanctions relief, and punts additional nuclear talks to the
future.
Yet another option would be to follow up on threats Trump made earlier in
the war to launch massive attacks on Iranian infrastructure. "The Iranians may
believe the president is wounded and constrained by Congress, but the opposite
can also be true," Schenker said.
But such escalation would likely exacerbate the oil and energy price problem
that many voters cited as a reason for supporting Democrats on Tuesday,
Schenker said.
The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil tumbled below $95 on Wednesday
after the election, touching its lowest level in two months, a signal that
markets do not expect major strikes.
Iran, of course, also has a say, analysts note.
"Once you start a fistfight, you can stop throwing punches. That doesn't
mean the other combatant will stop throwing punches," said Bradley Bowman, an
analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "We can try to end the
war, but what do we do if the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to attack
shipping in the Strait of Hormuz?"
Regional officials are on high alert for what Trump does next
Middle East officials had been hanging on Trump's every word in the weeks
leading up to the U.S. elections, looking for clues on how the Republican
leader was weighing his next steps.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed for renewed strikes on
Iran during a call over the weekend with Trump, who would not commit to taking
military action, according to a person who was briefed on it.
Three Middle Eastern government officials said on Wednesday that Trump and
his administration had seemed to be signaling to Iran that its leverage would
only diminish after the U.S. elections were over.
Administration officials had privately suggested in diplomatic channels that
Trump might be more willing to restart strikes after Nov. 3 because he'd have
little left to lose politically, according to the officials, who were not
authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
After Tuesday's electoral shellacking, there was lingering concern that
Trump might be more emboldened to carry out full-scale or new limited strikes
against Iran, the officials said.
A fourth official said the results of the election gave mediators a measure
of optimism about finding a pathway to resolving the conflict.
Meanwhile, Vance appeared to more forcefully pin the electoral debacle on
the Iran war than his boss Trump, who initially blamed the GOP's candidates for
the big loss.
"The reason we lost," Vance said of the midterm elections in a lengthy
social media post, "is the war."
Vance, a potential 2028 presidential contender, had been among the most
skeptical inside the White House on the wisdom of launching the war but got on
board with Trump's decision once he made it.
Voter data shows Iran had an impact but was not the top issue
Several Democratic candidates who scored upsets on Tuesday noted voter
discontent with the Iran war in their victory speeches.
"Wherever I went, I heard the same thing," said Sen.-elect Josh Turek of
Iowa. "They would say, Josh, I'm struggling just to keep food on the table,
keep a roof above my head, pay my electric bill. And with this war in Iran, I'm
struggling just to keep gas in my tank."
About 6 in 10 voters said the U.S. made the "wrong decision" in taking
military action against Iran, according to The AP Voter Poll, a survey of more
than 100,000 voters in the United States.
Most of those voters dissatisfied with the Iran war backed the Democratic
candidate in their local U.S. House race, but the survey suggested the Iran war
was not the top issue for most voters.
Only about one-third of voters said the war in Iran was "crucial" to shaping
how they voted for Congress. That was well below the roughly half who said that
about the cost of living or government corruption.
Nearly all voters who backed the Democratic candidate in their local U.S.
House race said going to war with Iran was the "wrong decision," while roughly
8 in 10 voters who backed the Republican candidate said it was the "right
decision."
Meanwhile, about 6 in 10 voters nationally said they were "very concerned"
about the cost of gasoline and diesel, the poll showed -- and about two-thirds
of that group voted for the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race.
But Trump, for his part, said even in hindsight he'd approach Iran exactly
as he has.
"I can tell you that as far as that war is concerned I would have done
nothing different," the president said.
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